This year’s road to Kentucky Derby seems to be full of twists and turns. Infact there were more twists involving important horses than usual. Though obviously everything will come down to how the horses break from the gate and the trips they get. Here’s a look at our preview at the field:
1) Lookin At Lee: Although he ran on well while weaving through traffic in Ark, he's very weak Beyer Figure-wise. There are a lot of Ifs in his case. If he gets it, and if a few others can’t close better than he does, he can win.
2) Thunder Snow: No one out of the UAE Derby has ever been competitive in the Kentucky Derby. He’s a talented horse, no doubt but it’s hard to envision him gliding home at the Derby distance.
3) Fast and Accurate: Even though he won the same race that Animal Kingdom won in 2011 as his final prep, he’s unlikely to be competitive after the first mile. Although, owners say he will go to the front, he seems overmatched.
4) Untrapped: The dark bay colt wore blinkers for the first time in Arkansas, which may have contributed to his low finish. If we strike off the Ark.Derby the horse has won once and finished second three times from four starts, he can be a strong contender for the Ky. Derby. "We have taken the blinkers off," Untrapped's trainer, Steven M. Asmussen said, per Paulick Report and is “very happy with how he's training over the Churchill track."
5) Always Dreaming: He made his 2017 debut on a Wednesday at Tampa Bay Downs and enticed jockey John Velazquez to give up an entire day of mounts at Gulfstream Park to ride him that day, when he won by 11 lengths. Was impressive winner of the Florida Derby. And he’s made the wins look effortless. His final work has been terrific and one of the like top horses for the Derby win.
6) State of Honor- Literally every single time this horse has raced around two turns, he has lost ground to the winner in the final 1/8 mile. He's likeable because he tries hard, but he’s unlikely to make up for extra ground.
7) Girvin: He’s had foot issues which resulted in interrupted training. He doesn’t seem superior enough to pull off the Ky.Derby win.
8) Hence: Two horses he beat in the Sunland Derby, Irap and Conquest Mo Money, came back to run huge races in their subsequent starts. He’s picked right time to get good.
9) Irap: His jockey, Mario Gutierrez, is 2 for 2 in the Kentucky Derby, both times riding for Irap’s trainer, Doug O’Neill. Big, strong colt may just be putting it together when it matters. Has speed, a plus if moderate pace develops. Hard to ignore as one of the top contenders in the Race for Roses.
10) Gunnevera: There are a lot of similarities between him and his father, Dialed In, who never really fired as the Kentucky Derby favorite in 2011. He’s best when he makes one run. But he’s anticipated to keep a moderate pace, which may play against him.
11) Battle of Midway: Ran arguably the best race of anyone when finishing 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, but no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without a start at two since 1882. Courageous effort in SA Derby, he should be an interesting watch. A bit of a wild-card to win.
12) Sonneteer: Steadily closed after being well back early in Ark.Derby but the race fell apart in the end. Derby. Questionable strength to complete the Ky. Derby.
13) J Boys Echo: He’s an interesting longshot - a nice horse but not as good as the others in the field.
14) Classic Empire: Last year’s Champion Two Year Old has only raced twice in the last six months, and one of those races was essentially a non-effort. He won the other one, which was the Ark. Derby despite interrupted preparation. He is a serious racehorse with immense talent and he is clearly the most accomplished horse in this field who, on his best day, is a prime win contender. But he would need to be a superstar to overcome all he has faced.
15) McCraken: This horse has a ton of fans, and that’s not surprising considering he is undefeated at Churchill Downs. He’s been primed for the race of his life and can definitely win.
16) Tapwrit: He claimed the Tampa Bay Derby but didn't move a muscle in Blue Grass. And based on the reports of most observers at Churchill Downs this week, Tapwrit looks fantastic. He has a chance to win on a rebound.
17) Irish War Cry: He’s a major win candidate even though he performed badly at Fountain of Youth. Also he’s the only one here with two triple-digit Beyers.
18) Gormley: Jockey Espinoza is always dangerous, and Gormley is a multiple Grade I winner. He did win from off the pace in SA Derby but several others in here are better.
19) Practical Joke: One of the few Grade I winners in here, and he has two Grade I wins. He’s talented, but the Ky.Derby may not be his best distance race.
20) Patch: The feel good story of the year, as Patch lost his left eye to an infection when he was much younger. He is the media darling of the Derby. This might be too much too soon for a talented colt who might become something nice later on.
21) Royal Mo (Eligible) - Will only run if there is a scratch before 9am Friday- Some people really liked the way he ran in the Santa Anita Derby and would be a major early pace presence but unlikely to be win-contender.
22) Master Plan (Also Eligible)- Will only run if there is two scratches before 9am Friday - He lost to Thunder Snow in the UAE Derby. He looks more suited to the Kentucky Derby distance than Thunder Snow. He might have chance down the line if given the opportunity to develop.
The top contenders for the top spot in the Kentucky Derby are Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming with longshots - Tapwrit, Patch, and Irap.